This posted on DR1.com, the English message board for the Dominican Republic, by Mike Fisher, a German charter sport fishing boat captain, who works out of Punta Cana. Mike is our resident weather expert. He writes here in English, which is his third language.
as Sad as that Outlook looks like,
and Yes, it is really as said as it looks,
it is also since many years nothing New, been that far before Tomas, far before the september Storm, far before the Quake.
let's face the Facts:
last Month People Died in haiti due ""Floodings"" of a simple average October Rain, no Storm, no out of the ordinary weather, no Quake, simple Rain, and sorrily that is a monthly ocurrance all around the Year.
the Country is in Need to changes things with or without help from the outside since a Hundred Years, many Billions of Aid flew down the haitian Rivers since then.
in 1979 Cat3 Hurricane David blew over the Island without taking reported Lifes there, haiti still had 25% of It's Forrestation alive.
just 25 years later, in 2004, by then only 1.4% of Haiti's Forrestation alive, barely a Treecrowd to spot on a Sat Shot, the weak Tropical Storms jeanne and Gordon went through, Jeanne alone took over 3000 Lifes!!! and all solely due the Floods and Mudslides, nobody been blown away from a windforce or such.
building Tent Cities to let some hundred Thousands survive a few months longer will not solve a thing in Haiti,
give those People something effordable to cook with other than WOOD,
get those Hills Reforrested or for Each Tree not Planted 100 Humans will Die.
a simple Cicle that proofs to be fact in Haiti since Decades,
but TreePlanting Maybe still seen as a Job for Greenpeace and Treehuggers, not suitable for the Comfo Saloons of Politicians when holding their Big Speechs.
In Haiti People DIE due a simple October or November or X-mas or what ever Month/Day Rain.
Now we are talking about any Country's biggest Nightmare on approach,
and No Time to plant a Tree before Tomas Rains down on 'em,
there is not even any evacuation running due leak of a place where to go to.
it's the good ole tactics:
Run as fast as You Can,
if that's not fast enough,
Tomas is actually predicted to Track trough the channel between jamaica and the SW'ern Tip of the Haitian Peninsula, Tracking NNE through the Channel between SE Cuba and NW Haiti, with a slight tought on the Haitian SW and again on the Pass NW. such could leave due the widespreading Rainfalls there 1-3K Names on the final List.
IF Tomas passes Western Haiti 50-70 miles more East of that Track, by far within the Cone of Uncertainties, the List will write easily in 5 Figures Numbers for Haiti alone.
but I guess Today's World Economy does not allow for Mayor Forrestation Programs.